ارزیابی اقتصادی زنجیرۀ ارزش متانول: با تمرکز بر توسعۀ واحد MTO و تولید الفین مبتنی بر قرارداد خدماتی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت قراردادهای بین‌المللی نفت و گاز، دانشکدۀ حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران

2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد نفت و گاز، دانشکدۀ اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران مرکز، تهران، ایران‌

3 استادیار حقوق نفت و گاز، دانشکدۀ حقوق و علوم سیاسی ـ دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران‌

چکیده

در شرایط پرتلاطم و پیچیدۀ بازار جهانی انرژی، انتخاب مسیر بهینۀ سرمایه‌گذاری نیازمند تحلیل عمیق زنجیرۀ ارزش و درک صحیح از مزیت‌های نسبی در هر حلقه از آن است. در این راستا، گاز طبیعی به ‌عنوان یک منبع استراتژیک، باید از مسیرهایی عبور کند که بیشترین ارزش افزوده را در بلندمدت خلق کند. مطالعۀ حاضر با تمرکز بر بخشی از زنجیرۀ ارزش گاز طبیعی، یعنی مسیر متانول به الفین، به تحلیل اقتصادی و راهبردی دو گزینۀ اصلی می‌پردازد: احداث واحد MTO در داخل کشور و ارسال متانول برای فرآورش کارمزدی در خارج از کشور. با مدل‌سازی مالی مبتنی بر سه سناریو عملیاتی، یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهند در هیچ‌یک از حالت‌های بررسی‌شده، نرخ بازدهی پروژه به سطح مورد انتظار سرمایه‌گذار (۱۵ درصد) نمی‌رسد و گزینه‌های پیشنهادی از جذابیت اقتصادی برخوردار نیستند. هزینه‌های بالای عملیاتی، ناکارآمدی فناوری‌های موجود و ضعف در مزیت قیمتی خوراک، از دلایل اصلی عدم توجیه‌پذیری اقتصادی این پروژه‌ها به ‌شمار می‌روند. بر این‌اساس، تمرکز بر توسعۀ زنجیره‌های تکمیلی تحت عناوین GTO+ یا MTO+ و طراحی مدل‌های نوین مشارکت و سرمایه‌گذاری، ضرورتی اجتناب‌ناپذیر برای خلق ارزش و پایداری اقتصادی در این مسیر تلقی می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Economic Evaluation of the Methanol Value Chain: Focusing on MTO Plant Development and Toll-Based Olefin Production

نویسندگان [English]

  • Seyed Saeid Daneshi 1
  • Ali Shahrooie 2
  • Mohammadmehdi Hajian 3
1 Ph.D. Candidate in International Oil and Ga Contract Management, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran
2 Ph.D. Candidate in Oil and Gas Economics, Faculty of Economics, Islamic Azad University, Central Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant Professor of Oil and Gas Law, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

In the volatile and complex environment of global energy markets, making optimal investment decisions requires a deep understanding of the value chain and the relative advantages within each of its links. As a strategic resource, natural gas must be directed through pathways that generate the highest long-term value. This study focuses on a key segment of the natural gas value chain—the methanol-to-olefins (MTO) route—and evaluates the economic and strategic feasibility of two main options: (1) establishing a domestic MTO plant, and (2) exporting methanol for toll-based olefin production abroad.Using financial modeling based on three operational scenarios, the findings reveal that none of the proposed options meet the minimum expected internal rate of return (IRR) of 15%. High operating expenses, technological inefficiencies, and a lack of competitive feedstock pricing are identified as major barriers to economic viability. The toll-processing model—defined as outsourcing methanol conversion to olefins under a service-fee agreement—also fails to deliver acceptable returns under typical conditions. The study concludes that MTO projects are not financially attractive under current market dynamics. Therefore, the strategic focus should shift toward extended value chain models such as GTO+ and MTO+, which integrate downstream production of higher-value petrochemical products. These approaches, supported by innovative financing structures and collaborative investment models, are essential for creating sustainable value from natural gas resources.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Value Chain
  • Methanol
  • MTO
  • Economic Evaluation
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