بررسی افزایش‏ بهای‏ برق و هم‏راستایی آن با استانداردهای‏ جهانی‏ بر اصلاح الگوی‏ مصرف خانگی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دکتری مکانیک بیوسیستم، پژوهشگاه نیرو، تهران، ایران

2 دکتری اقتصاد نفت و گاز دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران

3 رئیس مرکز تخصصی نوآوری و توسعۀ فناوری مدیریت مصرف انرژی پژوهشگاه نیرو، تهران، ایران

4 مدیرکل دفتر برنامۀ راهبردی و تنظیم مقررات، سازمان انرژی‏های تجدید‏پذیر و بهره‏وری انرژی برق، تهران، ایران

10.22059/ses.2024.382774.1099

چکیده

این پژوهش به بررسی تأثیر افزایش بهای برق برای مشترکان خانگی پرمصرف و رساندن آن به استانداردهای جهانی بر اصلاح الگوی مصرف می‏پردازد. نتایج نشان می‏دهد نظام قیمت‏گذاری ناکارآمد و رشد بالای مصرف برق در ایران، چالش‏های جدی برای صنعت برق ایجاد کرده است. در این راستا، افزایش تعرفه‏های برق برای مشترکان پرمصرف به عنوان یک راهکار اقتصادی مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. در این مطالعه، داده‏های مشترکان پرمصرف خانگی در سال ۱۴۰۱ استفاده شد و تأثیرات سناریوهای مختلف افزایش تعرفه بر درآمد وزارت نیرو و تغییرات در رفتار مصرف‏کنندگان بررسی شد. به خلاف پژوهش‏های قبلی که تنها بر برآورد تقاضای برق یا بررسی کشش قیمتی تمرکز داشتند، این تحقیق تأثیر افزایش بهای برق و انطباق با استانداردهای جهانی بر اصلاح الگوی مصرف مشترکان برق خانگی را مورد بررسی قرار داده است. نتایج نشان می‏دهد افزایش تعرفه‏ها به کاهش قابل توجهی در مصرف برق منجر خواهد شد که به نوبۀ خود می‏تواند به کاهش بار شبکه منجر شود. همچنین، درآمد حاصل از این افزایش تعرفه‏ها می‏تواند در بهینه‏سازی تجهیزات صنعت برق مورد استفاده قرار گیرد. بر اساس سناریوها، درآمد وزارت نیرو از مشترکان پرمصرف به طور قابل توجهی افزایش خواهد یافت و این امر فرصت‏هایی را برای بهبود زیرساخت‏های صنعت برق فراهم می‏آورد. در صورت افزایش قیمت برق به سطوح نزدیک به قیمت‏های جهانی، مشترکان با مصرف بیش از 5/1 برابر الگو، مصرف خود را به زیر الگو کاهش خواهند داد. این تغییرات نشان‏دهندۀ واکنش مثبت تقاضا به تغییرات قیمت و سیاست‏های قیمتی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the increase in electricity prices and its alignment with global standards on the modification of the household consumption pattern

نویسندگان [English]

  • Zahra Esmaeili 1
  • Hadieh Alishiri 2
  • Sohrab Amini Valashani 3
  • Salar Atashpar 4
1 Specialized Center for Innovation and Development of Energy Consumption Management Technology, Niro Research Institute, Tehran, Iran
2 PhD in Oil and Gas Economics, Allameh Tabatabai University, Tehran, Iran
3 Head of the Specialized Center for Innovation and Development of Energy Consumption Management Technology, Niro Research Institute, Tehran, Iran
4 General Manager of Strategic Program and Regulation Office, Renewable Energy and Electricity Efficiency Organization, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

This research examines the effect of increasing the price of electricity for high-consumption household subscribers and bringing it up to global standards on the modification of the consumption pattern. The results show that the inefficient pricing system and the high growth of electricity consumption in Iran have created serious challenges for the electricity industry. In this regard, the increase in electricity tariffs for high-consumption subscribers has been considered as an economic solution. In this study, the data of high-consumption household subscribers in 1401 was used and the effects of different tariff increase scenarios on the income of the Ministry of Energy and changes in consumer behavior were investigated. became Unlike previous researches that only focused on estimating electricity demand or investigating price elasticity, this research has investigated the effect of electricity price increase and compliance with global standards on modifying the consumption pattern of household electricity subscribers. The results show that the increase in tariffs will lead to a significant reduction in electricity consumption, which in turn can lead to a reduction in network load. Also, the income from this tariff increase can be used in the optimization of the electricity industry equipment. Based on the scenarios, the Ministry of Energy's income from high-consumption subscribers will increase significantly, and this will provide opportunities to improve the infrastructure of the electricity industry. If the price of electricity increases to levels close to global prices, subscribers will reduce their consumption below the model by consuming more than 1.5 times the model. These changes show the positive reaction of demand to price changes and price policies.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Electricity Pricing
  • Household Consumption
  • Global Standards
  • Energy Policy
  • Demand Elasticity

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فصلنامه سیستم های انرژی پایدار
دوره 4، شماره 1
دی 1403
صفحه 27-41

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