مدل‌سازی پیش‌بینی مصرف انرژی با استفاده از روش هوش مصنوعی (مطالعۀ موردی در استان همدان)

نوع مقاله : مطالعه موردی

نویسندگان

1 استاد، دانشکدۀ مهندسی انرژی و منابع پایدار، دانشکدگان علوم و فناوری‏ های میان‏ رشته‏ ای، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

2 دانشجوی دکتری دانشکدۀ مهندسی انرژی و منابع پایدار، دانشکدگان علوم و فناوری‏ های میان‏ رشته ای، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

3 دانشیار دانشکدۀ مهندسی انرژی و منابع پایدار، دانشکدگان علوم و فناوری‏ های میان‏ رشته ‏ای، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

10.22059/ses.2024.383569.1104

چکیده

در این پژوهش از هوش مصنوعی برای پیش‏بینی مصرف انرژی در مناطق سردسیر (مطالعۀ موردی استان همدان) استفاده شده است. در این راستا از مدل‏های شبکه‏های عصبی مصنوعی و منطق فازی به ‏منظور پیش‏بینی روند جاری مصرف انرژی استفاده می‏شود. برای دستیابی به این هدف، از مدل پرسپترون چندلایه با آزمایش چندین معماری ممکن و همچنین، منطق فازی استفاده شده است تا بتوان بهترین قابلیت تعمیم را انتخاب کرد. داده‏های ورودی و خروجی ثبت‌شدۀ واقعی که بر مصرف طولانی‏مدت انرژی تأثیر می‏گذارند، در فرایند آموزش، اعتبارسنجی و تست استفاده شده‌اند. مدل توسعه‏یافتۀ شبکه‏های عصبی برای پیش‏بینی مصرف انرژی استان همدان طی سال‏های ۱۴۰۰ تا ۱۴۰۹ استفاده می‏شود. داده‏ها به ‏صورت سالانه از ترازنامۀ انرژی وزارت نیرو و از سال ۱۳۸۰ تا ۱۳۹۹ استخراج شده است. نتایج خروجی با روش منطق فازی نیز مقایسه می‏شود. همچنین، نتایج شبیه‏سازی به ما نشان می‏دهد تقاضای برق تا سال ۱۴۰۹ به حدود ۳۳18 گیگاوات ساعت خواهد رسید. رویکرد پیشنهادی می‏تواند در اجرای مؤثر سیاست‏های انرژی مفید باشد، زیرا پیش‏بینی دقیق مصرف انرژی بر سرمایه‏گذاری، تحلیل درآمد، و مدیریت تحقیقات بازار تأثیر می‏گذارد و در عین‏ حال امنیت عرضه را حفظ می‏کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Energy consumption Forecast modeling using artificial intelligence method (A case study in Hamadan province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Younes Noorollahi 1
  • Amin Sharbati 2
  • Ahmad Hajinezhad 3
1 Professor, Department of Sustainable Energy Systems Engineering, Faculty of Energy Engineering and Sustainable Resources, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Phd. Student, School of Energy Engineering and Sustainable Resources, College of Interdisciplinary Science and Technologies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Sustainable Energy Systems Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

In this research, artificial intelligence has been used to predict energy consumption in cold regions (case study of Hamadan province). In this regard, artificial neural network models and fuzzy logic are used to predict the current trend of energy consumption. To achieve this goal, the multilayer perceptron model has been used by testing several possible architectures as well as fuzzy logic in order to select the best generalization capability. Real recorded input and output data affecting long-term energy consumption have been used in the training, validation and testing process. In this article, the developed model of neural networks is used to predict the energy consumption of Hamedan province during the years 1400 to 1409. The data is extracted annually from the energy balance sheet of the Ministry of Energy from 1380 to 1399. The output results are also compared with the fuzzy logic method. Also, the simulation results show us that the electricity demand will reach about 3318 gigawatt hours by 1409. The proposed approach can be useful in the effective implementation of energy policies, as accurate energy consumption forecasting affects investment, revenue analysis, and market research management while maintaining security of supply.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Forecasting of energy consumption pattern
  • Hamadan province
  • multilayer perceptron model
  • artificial neural networks
  • fuzzy logic
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