مدل‌سازی و پیش‌بینی روند مصرف انرژی برق در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناسی ارشد برنامه‌ریزی سیستم‌های اقتصادی، دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود، شاهرود، ایران

2 استادیار، دانشکدۀ مهندسی صنایع و مدیریت، دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود، شاهرود، ایران

10.22059/ses.2024.377117.1081

چکیده

پیش‏بینی روند مصرف انرژی کشور در رفع مشکل ناترازی (شکاف بین عرضه و تقاضا) آن کمک‌کننده است. با توجه به اهمیت نسبی انرژی برق در سبد انرژی مصرفی کشور، در این پژوهش روند مصرف برق در ایران مدل‏سازی و پیش‏بینی شده است. عوامل و متغیرهای مؤثر بر روند مصرف برق کشور بر اساس مطالعه‏های پیشین شناسایی ‏شده و داده‏های مربوطه طی دورۀ ۱۳۵۷ تا ۱۴۰۰ برای ساخت مدل‏های پیش‏بینی جمع‏آوری ‏شده است. در پیش‏بینی روند مصرف برق از مدل و روش‏های متعددی ازجمله روش استفاده از شاخص‏های ساده، شدت مصرف انرژی، خط روند مصرف، مدل رگرسیون و شبکۀ عصبی استفاده‏ شده است. نتایج تخمین مدل رگرسیون نشان می‏دهد روند مصرف برق در کشور تحت تأثیر درآمد سرانه و مصرف دورۀ قبل است و از لحاظ آماری سایر متغیرها مانند قیمت انرژی، دمای هوا و بارندگی اثر معنادار بر روند آن نداشته است. مصرف برق طی سال‏های ۱۳۵۷ـ 1400 تقریباً 14/22 برابر شده و رشد متوسط سالیانۀ آن 49/7 درصد است که بر ‌اساس این پیش‏بینی مصرف برق برای سال ۱۴۰۵ برابر با ۴۵۵۶۰۳ هزار مگاوات است. در حالی که پیش‏بینی مصرف برق در این سال با مدل رگرسیون برابر ۳۶۸۹۵۹ هزار مگاوات است. مقایسۀ نتایج پیش‏بینی مصرف برق نشان می‏دهد ‌دقت پیش‏بینی مدل‏ها و رویکردهای مختلف یکسان نیست و روش رگرسیون میزان خطای اندازه‏گیری کمتری نسبت به دیگر روش‏های مورد بررسی در پیش‏بینی روند مصرف برق دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Modeling and Forecasting the Trend of Electricity Consumption in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mahsa Ebrahimi Nezhomi 1
  • Mohammad Mirbagherijam 2
  • Hamideh Moharrami 1
1 . M.A. in Economic Systems Planning, Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran
چکیده [English]

Accurate forecasting of a country's energy consumption trend is crucial in addressing the imbalance between supply and demand. Given the significant contribution of electricity to Iran's energy consumption portfolio, this research aims to model and forecast the trend of electricity consumption in Iran. Factors influencing the trend of electricity consumption were identified based on previous studies, and relevant data were collected for the period 1978-2021develop forecast models. Various models and methods were employed to predict the trend of electricity consumption, including simple indicators, energy consumption intensity, trend line analysis, regression modeling, and neural networks. The regression model estimation results indicate that the trend of electricity consumption in Iran is significantly influenced by per capita income and consumption in the previous period. From a statistical perspective, other variables such as energy price, air temperature, and rainfall did not have a significant impact on the trend. The results show that electricity consumption in Iran has increased by approximately 22.14% over the period 1978-2021, with an average annual growth rate of 7.49%. According to the forecast, electricity consumption is expected to reach 455,603 thousand megawatts by 2026. In contrast, the regression model forecast for this year is 368,959 thousand megawatts. A comparison of the prediction results reveals that the accuracy of different models and approaches varies, with the regression method exhibiting a lower measurement error than the other investigated methods in predicting the electricity consumption trend.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Electricity consumption trend
  • forecasting models
  • regression model
  • neural network
  • simple predictive indicators

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فصلنامه سیستم های انرژی پایدار
دوره 3، شماره 3
تیر 1403
صفحه 323-339

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