سناریوهای توسعه برای ذخیره‌سازی انرژی الکتریکی در کشور ایران با روش ماتریس اثر متقابل

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مهندسی انرژی‏های تجدیدپذیر، دانشکدۀ مهندسی مکانیک و انرژی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی تهران

2 پژوهشگر، گروه مهندسی انرژی‏های تجدیدپذیر، دانشکدۀ مهندسی مکانیک و انرژی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی تهران

3 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی انرژی‏های تجدیدپذیر، دانشکدۀ مهندسی مکانیک و انرژی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی تهران

10.22059/ses.2023.356379.1030

چکیده

سناریونویسی نوعی راه‏کار برای ترسیم فضای کاری آینده است. سناریوهای متفاوت استراتژی‏های متفاوتی را پیشنهاد می‏کنند که کاربردهای متفاوتی را به همراه خواهند داشت. در روند سناریونویسی، گزینه‏های واقعی برای تصمیم‏گیری در مورد اینکه چه اهدافی باید انتخاب شوند و نیز ابزار مورد نیاز برای دستیابی به آن اهداف پیدا می‏شود. این مقاله با بررسی تلفیقی برنامه‏ریزی‏ها و بهره‏گیری از سناریوها برای ذخیره‏سازی انرژی در جهان، توصیف‏کننده‏ها و حالت‏هایی را استخراج کرده که پس از بحث و تبادل ‏نظر در جلسه‏های خبرگی با شرایط ایران متناسب‏سازی شده‏اند. در ادامه ماتریس اثر متقابل برای ارزیابی پارامترها نسبت به یکدیگر تشکیل داده شد و شبیه‏سازی توصیف‏کننده‏ها و حالت‏ها در نرم‏افزار ScenarioWizard انجام پذیرفت. نتایج در قالب 9 سناریو، مسیرهایی را برای رسیدن به اهداف متفاوت در فضای حالت معرفی کرد. 7 سناریو توسعۀ فناوری در بخش انرژی را دنبال کردند و 2 سناریو توسعۀ فناوری در بخش راهبردی صنعت و معدن را در پیش گرفتند. طبق نتایج این نکته به دست آمد که 8 توصیف‏کننده فقط در یک حالت سازگار شدند و 5 توصیف‏کنندۀ باقی‏مانده در بیشتر از یک حالت سازگار معنا پیدا کردند. رشد منابع تولید پراکنده تا 15 هزار مگاوات برای گسترش سامانه‏های تولید هم‏زمان برق و حرارت و همچنین، استفاده در مناطق دور از شبکه و تعیین ضریب نفوذ منابع تجدیدپذیر به میزان 10 هزار مگاوات در شبکۀ انرژی الکتریکی کشور از حالت‏های مهم کمی برگزیده‏شده در توصیف‏کننده‏ها بودند. گسترش روابط بین‏المللی، جذب سرمایۀ خارجی، استفاده از منابع اعتباری دولتی داخل کشور مانند بودجه و اعتبارات صندوق ملی، توسعۀ مراکز نوآوری صنعتی هدفمند مطابق با نیازهای کشور و توجه هم‏زمان به پارامترهای برنامه‏ریزی، زیرساختی و بهره‏برداری در بحث تاب‏آوری شبکۀ برق از حالت‏های برگزیدۀ کیفی حائز اهمیت عنوان شدند. در جمع‏بندی با توجه به سناریوهای استخراج‏شده، فناوری باتری، هیدروژن و ذخیره‏سازی تلمبۀ ‏ذخیره‏ای به ‏عنوان فناوری‏های اصلی برگزیده شدند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Development scenarios for electrical energy storage in Iran with Cross-Impact Balance method

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mahdi Gandomzadeh 1
  • Sara Mahmoudian Younesi 1
  • Abolghasem Mosayyebi 2
  • Majid Zandi 3
1 Department of Renewable Energy Engineering, Faculty of Mechanical and Energy Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
2 Department of Renewable Energy Engineering, Faculty of Mechanical and Energy Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
3 Department of Renewable Energy Engineering, Faculty of Mechanical and Energy Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Scenario writing is a way to draw the future workspace. Different scenarios suggest different strategies that will have different applications. In the process of scenario writing, real options are found to decide what goals should be chosen and what the means to achieve those goals could be. This article has extracted the descriptors and modes that have been adapted to Iran's conditions after the discussion and exchange of opinions in the expert meetings. Next, the Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) was formed to evaluate the parameters relative to each other, and the simulation of descriptors and states was performed in the ScenarioWizard software. The results introduced 9 scenarios to achieve different goals in the state space. They followed 7 scenarios of technology development in the energy sector and two scenarios of technology development in the strategic sector of industry and mining. In the results, it was found that 8 descriptors were compatible in only one state and the remaining 5 descriptors found meaning in more than one compatible state. The development of distributed generation up to 15 thousand megawatts to expand the systems of combined heat and power, as well as use in areas far from the grid, and determining the penetration rate of renewable sources of 10 thousand megawatts in the country's electric energy network were among the important numerical states selected in the descriptors. Expanding international relations, attracting foreign capital, using domestic government credit resources such as the budget and credits of the National Development Fund of Iran, the development of targeted industrial knowledge-based companies according to the needs of the country and simultaneous attention to planning, infrastructural and operational parameters were considered important in the discussion of the resilience of the power grid from the selected non-numerical states At the end of the results, battery, hydrogen and pumped-hydro storage were selected as the preferred technologies.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Energy storage
  • Scenario
  • Cross-Impact Balance method
  • Battery
  • Hydrogen
  • pumped-hydro storage
  • Iran

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فصلنامه سیستم های انرژی پایدار
دوره 1، شماره 4
مهر 1401
صفحه 373-396

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