فصلنامه سیستم های انرژی پایدار

فصلنامه سیستم های انرژی پایدار

مدل‌سازی و پیش‌بینی مصرف انرژی الکتریکی با استفاده از مدل یادگیری ماشین تجمیعی استکینگ بهینه‌شده مبتنی بر الگوریتم بهینه‌سازی ازدحام ذرات

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی سیستم‌های انرژی، دانشکدۀ مهندسی انرژی و فیزیک، دانشگاه صنعتی امیرکبیر، تهران، ایران
2 کارشناس ارشد مدیریت کسب‌و‌کار، گروه مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران
3 دکتری مهندسی مکانیک، دانشکدۀ مهندسی مکانیک، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران
4 استادیار، گروه انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر، دانشکدۀ مهندسی انرژی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران
10.22059/ses.2026.412276.1222
چکیده
پیش‌بینی دقیق مصرف انرژی الکتریکی یکی از الزامات اصلی برنامه‌ریزی بلندمدت انرژی و توسعۀ زیرساخت‌های برق است. با توجه به اثر هم‌زمان عوامل اقتصادی، جمعیتی، تجاری و اقلیمی بر تقاضای برق، در این پژوهش یک چارچوب داده‌محور مبتنی بر مدل یادگیری ماشین تجمیعی استکینگ بهینه‌شده با الگوریتم بهینه‌سازی ازدحام ذرات ارائه شده است. به این‌منظور، داده‌های سالانۀ ۱۹۹۱ تا ۲۰۲۰ برای شش کشور ایران، ایالات متحده، چین، آلمان، استرالیا و ترکیه استفاده شد و پنج متغیر جمعیت، تولید ناخالص داخلی، واردات انرژی، صادرات انرژی و میانگین سالانه دمای هوا به ‌عنوان ورودی مدل در نظر گرفته شدند. عملکرد مدل‌های ANN، Ridge، Stack و Stack-PSO با شاخص‌های MSE، MAE، R² و MAPE ارزیابی شد. نتایج نشان داد مدل Stack-PSO در مجموع و در بیشتر موارد عملکرد برتری نسبت به سایر مدل‌ها داشته است. مقدار R² این مدل در کشورهای مورد بررسی در بازه ۹۷۴/۰ تا ۹۹۷/۰ قرار گرفت. کمترین مقدار MSE مربوط به چین و برابر با ۰۰۰۱۵/۰ بود و در ایران نیز MSE مدل Stack-PSO به ۰۰۰۴۲/۰ و R² به ۹۹۶/۰ رسید. همچنین، کمترین MAPE در ایالات متحده برابر با ۵/۲ درصد به دست آمد که نشان‌دهندۀ دقت بالای مدل پیشنهادی در کاهش خطای پیش‌بینی است. سپس با استفاده از مدل برتر، مصرف انرژی الکتریکی تا افق ۲۰۳۵ پیش‌بینی شد و نتایج نشان داد روند کلی مصرف در اغلب کشورها افزایشی است، هرچند شدت رشد بین کشورها متفاوت بوده و در برخی موارد الگوی رشد ملایم یا نزدیک به پایداری مشاهده شد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Modeling and forecasting of electricity energy consumption using an optimized Stacking ensemble machine learning model based on particle swarm optimization

نویسندگان English

Amir Bahrami Yajloo 1
Amir Mohammad Haddadi 2
Erfan Abbasian Hamedani 1
Mohammad Hossein Nozari 3
Mohammad Hadi Eslamian 1
Kianoosh Choubineh 4
1 PhD Candidate, Department of Energy Conversion, Faculty of 1 M.Sc. Student in Energy Systems Engineering, Department of Energy Engineering and Physics, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
2 Master of Business Administration, Department of Management and Accounting, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran
3 PhD Candidate, Department of Energy Conversion, Faculty of 1 M.Sc. Student in Energy Systems Engineering, Department of Energy Engineering and Physics, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
4 Assistant Professor, Department of Renewable Energy Engineering, Faculty of Energy Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

In this study, a data-driven framework is developed to model  and forecast electricity energy consumption (EEC) in countries with diverse economic, social, and climate characteristics. Five input variables including population (POP), gross domestic product (GDP), energy imports (IMP), energy exports (EXP), and annual average air temperature (TEMP) are used to model EEC. Annual data from 1991 to 2020 are employed for training and evaluation. Four machine learning algorithms, namely ANN, Ridge, Stack, and Stack-PSO, are implemented and assessed using MSE, MAE, R2, and MAPE. The results show that while the standalone ANN and Ridge models achieve acceptable accuracy, they exhibit lower stability and weaker generalization compared with ensemble-based approaches. The Stack model, constructed by combining the outputs of ANN and Ridge, yields noticeable improvements across the error metrics. The results demonstrated that the Stack-PSO model consistently outperformed the other models across the majority of cases. The R2 values for this model ranged from 0.974 to 0.997 across the surveyed countries. The lowest MSE was recorded for China at 0.00015, while for Iran, the Stack-PSO model achieved an MSE of 0.00042 and an R2 of 0.996. Furthermore, the lowest MAPE was observed in the United States at 2.5%, underscoring the high precision of the proposed model in minimizing forecasting errors. Subsequently, the superior model was employed to forecast electrical energy consumption up to the 2035 horizon. The findings indicate a generally increasing consumption trend in most countries; however, growth intensity varied significantly, with some cases exhibiting a moderate growth pattern or approaching relative stability.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Ensemble model
Particle swarm optimization
Machine learning
Forecasting
Electricity energy consumption
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