قفل‌شدگی دوگانه در سیاست انرژی تحت تحریم‌ها: شواهدی تجربی از ایران با چارچوب DLOCK-S

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استاد گروه مدیریت، واحد مرودشت، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مرودشت، ایران

10.22059/ses.2026.409643.1208

چکیده

سیاست انرژی در اقتصادهای وابسته به هیدروکربن تحت تحریم‌های بین‌المللی با محدودیت‌هایی فراتر از انتخاب‌های فنی مواجه است و بیش از هر چیز تحت تأثیر وابستگی‌های ساختاری قرار دارد. این پژوهش با ارائۀ چارچوب تحلیلی DLOCK-S (قفل‌شدگی دوگانه تحت تحریم)، تعامل میان وابستگی منابعی، وابستگی فناورانه و ساختار حکمرانی انرژی را در ایران طی سال‌های ۱۳۹۵ تا ۱۴۰۲ بررسی می‌کند. در این چارچوب، تحریم‌ها به‌ عنوان سازوکاری شرطی‌ساز عمل می‌کنند که شدت و هم‌زمانی این محدودیت‌ها را تقویت می‌کند. مطالعه از یک طراحی روش ترکیبی بهره می‌گیرد که شامل برآورد مدل داده‌های تابلویی برای ۳۰ پروژۀ انرژی و تحلیل شبکۀ نهادی ۱۴ نهاد اصلی حکمرانی انرژی می‌شود و تکمیل آن با داده‌های حاصل از نظرسنجی خبرگان و مصاحبه‌های کیفی است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد شاخص شدت وابستگی به منابع (RII) برابر 3/8 از ۱۰ و شاخص وابستگی فناورانه (TDC) به ‌طور میانگین 87/0 است که بیانگر سطح بالای مواجهه ساختاری است. برآوردهای پانلی بیانگر آن است که شدت تحریم‌ها رابطۀ میان وابستگی منابعی و وابستگی فناورانه را به ‌طور معناداری تعدیل می‌کند و اثر آن در زمینه‌های با شدت منابعی بالاتر قوی‌تر است. تحلیل شبکۀ نهادی نیز چگالی پایین هماهنگی و تمرکز بالا را نشان می‌دهد و با افزایش ریسک گلوگاه اجرایی و کاهش اثربخشی سیاست‌های نوآوری همراه است. در مجموع، یافته‌ها با پویایی قفل‌شدگی دوگانه سازگار است؛ وضعیتی که در آن وابستگی مالی ـ فسیلی و سخت‌شدگی فناورانه ـ نهادی به ‌طور هم‌زمان ظرفیت سازگاری و گذار انرژی را محدود می‌کنند. چارچوب DLOCK-S می‌تواند مبنایی تحلیلی برای ارزیابی محدودیت‌های سیاست انرژی در اقتصادهای تحریم‌شده فراهم آورد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Dual Lock-In in Energy Policy under Sanctions: Empirical Evidence from Iran Using the DLOCK-S Framework

نویسنده [English]

  • Seyed Mohammad Bagher Sobhani
Department of Management, Marvdasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Marvdasht, Iran
چکیده [English]

Energy policy in hydrocarbon-dependent economies under international sanctions is shaped by interacting structural constraints rather than discretionary policy choice. This study analyzes how sanctions condition persistent resource, technological, and institutional rigidities in Iran’s energy sector using the DLOCK-S Framework (Dual Lock-In under Sanctions). The framework integrates three empirically operationalized dimensions (resource intensity, technological dependency, and institutional network structure) and treats sanctions as a conditioning mechanism that reinforces their interaction. The analysis employs a mixed-methods design combining panel econometric estimation for 30 energy projects (1395–1402), institutional network analysis of 14 energy governance bodies, expert surveys, and qualitative interviews. Results indicate high structural exposure, with a Resource Intensity Index of 8.3/10 and a Technological Dependency Coefficient of 0.87. Panel regression results show that sanctions significantly moderate the relationship between resource intensity and technological dependency, with stronger effects in high-resource-intensity contexts. Institutional network analysis reveals low coordination density and high centralization, contributing to governance bottlenecks and weaker innovation-policy effectiveness. Overall, the findings demonstrate a dual lock-in dynamic in which fossil–fiscal dependence and technology–institutional rigidity jointly constrain adaptive energy transitions. The DLOCK-S Framework provides a transferable analytical basis for evaluating energy policy constraints in sanctioned, hydrocarbon-dependent economies.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Double Lock-in
  • Energy Sanctions
  • Hydrocarbon Resource Dependence
  • Energy Governance
  • Sanctioned Economy

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فصلنامه سیستم های انرژی پایدار
دوره 5، شماره 3
تیر 1405
صفحه 447-471

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