بررسی آیندۀ انرژی کشور فرانسه در افق 2050 با تمرکز بر تحلیل روندهای جهانی تأمین انرژی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد معارف اسلامی و مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکدۀ معارف اسلامی و مدیریت، دانشگاه امام صادق(ع)، تهران، ایران

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد برق و انرژی، پژوهشگاه نیرو، تهران، ایران

3 استادیار گروه مدیریت تولید و عملیات، دانشکدۀ معارف اسلامی و مدیریت صنعتی، دانشگاه امام صادق(ع)، تهران، ایران

4 دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت قراردادهای بین‎المللی نفت و گاز، دانشگاه امام صادق(ع)، تهران، ایران

5 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانش‎بنیان، پژوهشکدۀ مطالعات فناوری، تهران، ایران

10.22059/ses.2025.392926.1133

چکیده

تأمین انرژی در جهان با تحولاتی گسترده مواجه است که تحت تأثیر روندهای کلیدی در سه بخش انرژی‌های فسیلی، هسته‌ای و تجدیدپذیر قرار دارد. این مقاله با رویکردی آینده‌پژوهانه، 4 روند جهانی به تفکیک منابع فسیلی، هسته‌ای و تجدیدپذیر، یعنی در مجموع 12 روند که در حال شکل‌دهی به آیندۀ انرژی در جهان هستند را بررسی کرده و آن‌ها را با مطالعۀ موردی کشور فرانسه تطبیق داده است. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد وابستگی به سوخت‌های فسیلی به‌تدریج در حال کاهش است و انتظار می‌رود این منابع تا افق ۲۰۵۰ به ‌طور کامل از سبد تأمین انرژی بسیاری از کشورها، از جمله فرانسه، حذف شوند. در بخش انرژی هسته‌ای نیز اگرچه برخی کشورها همچنان به توسعۀ این انرژی متعهد هستند، اما روند کلی حاکی از کاهش تدریجی سهم آن در سبد انرژی جهانی است. طبق اسناد موجود، کشور فرانسه‌، به‌ عنوان وابسته‌ترین کشور به انرژی هسته‌ای به‌ طور جدی در حال تعدیل ساختار انرژی هسته‌ای خود است که تأثیرپذیری فرانسه از این روند را نشان می‌دهد. در مقابل، انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر به‌ دلیل پیشرفت‌های فناورانه، کاهش هزینه‌ها و حمایت‌های سیاستی، مسیر اصلی تأمین انرژی در آینده خواهند بود. مطالعۀ موردی فرانسه نشان می‌دهد این کشور نیز همسو با این تحولات جهانی، سیاست‌های خود را در راستای افزایش سهم انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر و کاهش وابستگی به منابع فسیلی و هسته‌ای تنظیم کرده است. نتایج این پژوهش تأیید می‌کند که روندهای جهانی در حال شکل‌دهی گذار به ‌سمت انرژی‌های پایدار است و پیش‌بینی می‌شود که این تغییرات تا نیمۀ قرن حاضر به شکل‌گیری نظام جدیدی در تأمین انرژی جهانی منجر خواهد شد.‌

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

A Study of France's Energy Outlook for 2050 Focusing on the Analysis of Global Energy Supply Trends

نویسندگان [English]

  • Kamal Kavyani 1
  • Mohammad Azimzadeh Arani 2
  • Alireza Afzali 3
  • Reza Tahmasbi Blukabad 4
  • Mohammad Sadegh Saremi 5
1 Master's student, Islamic Studies and Industrial Management, Faculty of Islamic Studies and Management, Imam Sadiq University (ISU), Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor in Energy and Electricity Economics Department, Niroo Research Institute (NRI)
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Complex Systems Management, Faculty of Islamic Studies and Management, Imam Sadiq University (ISU), Tehran, Iran
4 PhD student in International Oil and Gas Contracts Management, Faculty of Islamic Studies and Economics, Imam Sadiq University (ISU), Tehran, Iran
5 Assistant Professor of Technology Studies Institute (TSI), Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Global energy supply is undergoing significant transformations, influenced by key trends in three sectors: fossil fuels, nuclear energy, and renewable energy. This paper, using a foresight approach, examines four global trends, separated into fossil, nuclear, and renewable energy sources, totaling 12 global trends that are shaping the future of energy worldwide, and aligns them with a case study of France. The findings indicate that dependence on fossil fuels is gradually decreasing, and it is expected that these resources will be completely removed from the energy mix of many countries by 2050. In the nuclear energy sector, although some countries remain committed to its development, the overall trend points to a gradual decline in its share of the global energy mix. According to available documents, France, as the country most dependent on nuclear energy, is seriously adjusting its nuclear energy structure, which indicates that France is affected by this trend. In contrast, renewable energy sources, driven by technological advancements, cost reductions, and policy supports, will be the main source of energy supply in the future. The case study of France shows that, in line with these global trends, this country has aligned its policies to increase the share of renewable energy while reducing its dependence on fossil and nuclear sources. The results of this study confirm that global trends are steering the transition towards sustainable energy, and it is predicted that these changes will lead to the formation of a new global energy system by the middle of this century.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Global energy trends
  • future energy
  • France'؛ s Energy
  • trend analysis method

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فصلنامه سیستم های انرژی پایدار
دوره 4، شماره 4
مهر 1404
صفحه 463-486

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