شناسایی و تحلیل ساختاری پیشران‏ های مؤثر بر آیندۀ فناوری انرژی‏ های تجدید‏پذیر در ایران (مورد مطالعه: انرژی خورشیدی)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناسی ارشد مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکدۀ علوم انسانی، دانشگاه میبد، میبد، ایران

2 استادیار گروه مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکدۀ علوم انسانی، دانشگاه میبد، میبد، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکدۀ علوم انسانی، دانشگاه میبد، میبد، ایران

10.22059/ses.2025.388342.1112

چکیده

تحولات جهانی در حوزۀ انرژی و نگرانی‏های مرتبط با تغییرات اقلیمی، توجه به انرژی‏های تجدیدپذیر به‏ویژه انرژی خورشیدی را در کشورهای درحال‏توسعه مانند ایران افزایش داده است. ایران با داشتن پتانسیل بالای تابش خورشید، از جمله کشورهایی است که می‏تواند از این منبع پاک و بی‏پایان به ‏طور گسترده استفاده کند. هدف پژوهش حاضر، تعیین و بررسی پیشران‏های آیندۀ‏ فناوری‏ انرژی خورشیدی در ایران با رویکرد تحلیل ساختاری است. روش‏شناسی پژوهش حاضر از نظر هدف، کاربردی، از منظر بنیان پارادایمی، دارای رویکرد پراگماتیستی و از نظر نحوۀ گردآوری داده‏ها توصیفی ـ پیمایشی است. جامعۀ‏ آماری پژوهش حاضر، اساتید، مدیران و خبرگان صنعت انرژی‏های تجدیدپذیر هستند. در این پژوهش، ابتدا با بررسی ادبیات پژوهش و مطالعات اسنادی، مجموعه‏ای از پیشران‏های اولیه شناسایی شدند. سپس، با استفاده از مصاحبه‏های نیمه‏ساختاریافته با 12 نفر از خبرگان حوزۀ انرژی‏های تجدیدپذیر و فناوری خورشیدی و نیز تکمیل پرسشنامه‏های عدم قطعیت، پیشران‏های اصلی غربال و تعیین شدند. سرانجام، نتایج حاصل از تحلیل ساختاری با بهره‏گیری از نرم‏افزار میک‏مک منجر به احصای پنج پیشران کلیدی شامل منابع انسانی متخصص، سیاست‏ها و حمایت‏های دولتی، همکاری‏های بین‏المللی در فناوری انرژی خورشیدی، تکنولوژی‏های نوظهور و پیشرفتۀ جهانی و نیز زیرساخت انتقال و توزیع شد که نقشی محوری در پیشبرد فناوری انرژی خورشیدی در ایران دارند. این پژوهش، از طریق طراحی فرایندهای دقیقِ شناسایی، غربال‏گری و تحلیل روابط بین پیشران‏ها، می‏تواند به سیاست‏گذاران و تصمیم‏گیرندگان کمک کند تا با درک عمیق‏تری از پیشران‏ها و عدم قطعیت‏های پیش‏ رو، استراتژی‏های مؤثرتری را برای توسعۀ انرژی‏ خورشیدی در ایران اتخاذ کنند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Identification and Structural Analysis of Drivers Influencing the Future of Renewable Energy Technologies in Iran (Case Study: Solar Energy)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Saeid Torfi 1
  • Hossein Mohebbi 2
  • Hamid Babaei Meybodi 3
1 M.Sc. in Industrial Management, Faculty of Human Sciences, Meybod University, Meybod, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Deptment of Industrial Management, Faculty of Human Sciences, Meybod University, Meybod, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Deptment of Industrial Management, Faculty of Human Sciences, Meybod University, Meybod, Iran
چکیده [English]

Global developments in the energy sector and concerns related to climate change have heightened the focus on renewable energy, particularly solar energy, in developing countries such as Iran. With its high solar irradiation potential, Iran is among the nations capable of extensively utilizing this clean and inexhaustible resource. The present study aims to identify and analyze the key drivers shaping the future of solar energy technology in Iran using a structural analysis approach. The research methodology is applied in purpose, pragmatist in its paradigmatic foundation, and descriptive-survey in terms of data collection. The statistical population comprises professors, managers, and experts in the renewable energy sector. Initially, through a review of the research literature and documentary studies, a set of preliminary drivers was identified. Subsequently, semi-structured interviews with 12 experts in renewable energy and solar technology, along with the completion of uncertainty questionnaires, were employed to screen and determine the main drivers. Finally, the results of the structural analysis, conducted using MICMAC software, identified five key drivers that play a pivotal role in advancing solar energy technology in Iran: specialized human resources, government policies and support, international cooperation in solar energy technology, emerging and advanced global technologies, and transmission and distribution infrastructure. This study offers a comprehensive analytical framework grounded in foresight methodology, providing policymakers and decision-makers with the tools to identify emerging trends and uncertainties. By leveraging these insights, more effective strategies can be developed for advancing solar energy in Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Foresight
  • Key Drivers
  • Structural Analysis
  • Solar Energy Technology

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فصلنامه سیستم های انرژی پایدار
دوره 4، شماره 4
مهر 1404
صفحه 359-381

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