Future Energy Modeling Pathway in Iran: Scenario Analysis Using Cross-Impact Balance Method

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Master’s Graduate, Department of Renewable Energy Engineering, Faculty of Mechanical and Energy Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

2 Master of Science student, Department of Renewable Energy Engineering, Faculty of Mechanical and Energy Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

3 Phd student, Department of Renewable Energy Engineering, Faculty of Mechanical and Energy Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

4 Researcher, Department of Renewable Energy Engineering, Faculty of Mechanical and Energy Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

5 Associate Professor, Department of Renewable Energy Engineering, Faculty of Mechanical and Energy Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

10.22059/ses.2024.379118.1079

Abstract

Achieving sustainable energy security requires long-term planning and energy future modeling. In this regard, this study employs a descriptive model utilizing the Cross-Impact Balance Method in the scenario software Wizard. The primary objective is to provide a comprehensive model and scenarios aligned with the realities of the country's energy sector. Various aspects of energy development, including energy resources, production, consumption, imports and exports, new technologies, and energy policies, have been categorized into different groups to form the Cross-Impact Balance Method. Various states of each aspect have been formulated and scored using expert knowledge to demonstrate their interrelationships. Three scenarios named conservative, desirable, and ideal alongside current economic, social, political, technological, and environmental conditions have been introduced. Each of these scenarios has its own characteristics, advantages, and specific risks, making them potential reference models for future decision-making in the energy sector. The main outcome of this research is achieving sustainable development in energy security, necessitating transformation and updating in the country's higher education system to enhance knowledge and expertise in energy and related technologies.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Journal of sustainable Energy Systems
Volume 3, Issue 2
April 2024
Pages 193-208

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