Development scenarios for electrical energy storage in Iran with Cross-Impact Balance method

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Department of Renewable Energy Engineering, Faculty of Mechanical and Energy Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

10.22059/ses.2023.356379.1030

Abstract

Scenario writing is a way to draw the future workspace. Different scenarios suggest different strategies that will have different applications. In the process of scenario writing, real options are found to decide what goals should be chosen and what the means to achieve those goals could be. This article has extracted the descriptors and modes that have been adapted to Iran's conditions after the discussion and exchange of opinions in the expert meetings. Next, the Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) was formed to evaluate the parameters relative to each other, and the simulation of descriptors and states was performed in the ScenarioWizard software. The results introduced 9 scenarios to achieve different goals in the state space. They followed 7 scenarios of technology development in the energy sector and two scenarios of technology development in the strategic sector of industry and mining. In the results, it was found that 8 descriptors were compatible in only one state and the remaining 5 descriptors found meaning in more than one compatible state. The development of distributed generation up to 15 thousand megawatts to expand the systems of combined heat and power, as well as use in areas far from the grid, and determining the penetration rate of renewable sources of 10 thousand megawatts in the country's electric energy network were among the important numerical states selected in the descriptors. Expanding international relations, attracting foreign capital, using domestic government credit resources such as the budget and credits of the National Development Fund of Iran, the development of targeted industrial knowledge-based companies according to the needs of the country and simultaneous attention to planning, infrastructural and operational parameters were considered important in the discussion of the resilience of the power grid from the selected non-numerical states At the end of the results, battery, hydrogen and pumped-hydro storage were selected as the preferred technologies.

Keywords

References

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Journal of sustainable Energy Systems
Volume 1, Issue 4
October 2023
Pages 373-396

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