Dual Lock-In in Energy Policy under Sanctions: Empirical Evidence from Iran Using the DLOCK-S Framework

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Author

Department of Management, Marvdasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Marvdasht, Iran

10.22059/ses.2026.409643.1208

Abstract

Energy policy in hydrocarbon-dependent economies under international sanctions is shaped by interacting structural constraints rather than discretionary policy choice. This study analyzes how sanctions condition persistent resource, technological, and institutional rigidities in Iran’s energy sector using the DLOCK-S Framework (Dual Lock-In under Sanctions). The framework integrates three empirically operationalized dimensions (resource intensity, technological dependency, and institutional network structure) and treats sanctions as a conditioning mechanism that reinforces their interaction. The analysis employs a mixed-methods design combining panel econometric estimation for 30 energy projects (1395–1402), institutional network analysis of 14 energy governance bodies, expert surveys, and qualitative interviews. Results indicate high structural exposure, with a Resource Intensity Index of 8.3/10 and a Technological Dependency Coefficient of 0.87. Panel regression results show that sanctions significantly moderate the relationship between resource intensity and technological dependency, with stronger effects in high-resource-intensity contexts. Institutional network analysis reveals low coordination density and high centralization, contributing to governance bottlenecks and weaker innovation-policy effectiveness. Overall, the findings demonstrate a dual lock-in dynamic in which fossil–fiscal dependence and technology–institutional rigidity jointly constrain adaptive energy transitions. The DLOCK-S Framework provides a transferable analytical basis for evaluating energy policy constraints in sanctioned, hydrocarbon-dependent economies.

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Journal of sustainable Energy Systems

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 25 April 2026

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