A Study of France's Energy Outlook for 2050 Focusing on the Analysis of Global Energy Supply Trends

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Master's student, Islamic Studies and Industrial Management, Faculty of Islamic Studies and Management, Imam Sadiq University (ISU), Tehran, Iran

2 Assistant Professor in Energy and Electricity Economics Department, Niroo Research Institute (NRI)

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Complex Systems Management, Faculty of Islamic Studies and Management, Imam Sadiq University (ISU), Tehran, Iran

4 PhD student in International Oil and Gas Contracts Management, Faculty of Islamic Studies and Economics, Imam Sadiq University (ISU), Tehran, Iran

5 Assistant Professor of Technology Studies Institute (TSI), Tehran, Iran

10.22059/ses.2025.392926.1133

Abstract

Global energy supply is undergoing significant transformations, influenced by key trends in three sectors: fossil fuels, nuclear energy, and renewable energy. This paper, using a foresight approach, examines four global trends, separated into fossil, nuclear, and renewable energy sources, totaling 12 global trends that are shaping the future of energy worldwide, and aligns them with a case study of France. The findings indicate that dependence on fossil fuels is gradually decreasing, and it is expected that these resources will be completely removed from the energy mix of many countries by 2050. In the nuclear energy sector, although some countries remain committed to its development, the overall trend points to a gradual decline in its share of the global energy mix. According to available documents, France, as the country most dependent on nuclear energy, is seriously adjusting its nuclear energy structure, which indicates that France is affected by this trend. In contrast, renewable energy sources, driven by technological advancements, cost reductions, and policy supports, will be the main source of energy supply in the future. The case study of France shows that, in line with these global trends, this country has aligned its policies to increase the share of renewable energy while reducing its dependence on fossil and nuclear sources. The results of this study confirm that global trends are steering the transition towards sustainable energy, and it is predicted that these changes will lead to the formation of a new global energy system by the middle of this century.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

  1. Gielen, F. Boshell, D. Saygin, M.D. Bazilian, N. Wagner, R. Gorini, "The role of renewable energy in the global energy transformation," Energy Strategy Reviews. 2019;24: 38–50.
  2. E. Lebrouhi, E. Schall,,B. Lamran, Y. Chaibi, T. Kousksou, "Energy Transition in France," Sustainability. 2022;159: 1-28.
  3. Caineng, Z. Qun, Z. Guosheng, X. Bo, "Energy revolution: From a fossil energy era to a new energy era," Natural Gas Industry. 2016;3: 1-11.
  4. Galimova, M. Ram, C. Breyer, "Mitigation of air pollution and corresponding impacts during a global energy transition towards 100% renewable energy system by 2050," Energy Reports. 2022; 8:14124–14143.
  5. York and S. E. Bell, "Energy transitions or additions? Why a transition from fossil fuels requires more than the growth of renewable energy," Energy Research & Social Science. 2019;51: 40–43.
    1. Kone and T. Buke, "Forecasting of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion using trend analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 2010;14: 2906-2915.
  6. Jin and J. Kim, "What is better for mitigating carbon emissions – Renewable energy or nuclear energy? A panel data analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 2018;91: 464–471.
  7. Zissler, "France’s Nuclear Power Current Difficulties, New Policies, and 100% Renationalization," .2022https://www.renewable ei.org/en/activities/column/REupdate/20220823.php,.
  8. Engelhart, "The extraordinary rise of solar power,".2024.
  9. CHEN and W. LI, "Analysis on the Current Situation and Trend of Nuclear Energy Development," National Geological Library of China, 10, 277-282, 2022.
  10. Arora and C. Angell, "The role of technology in the future of energy,".2024.
  11. L. Zhukovskiy, D. E. Batueva, D. Evgenievna, A. D. Buldysko, B. Gil, V. V. Starshaia, "Fossil Energy in the Framework of Sustainable Development: Analysis of Prospects and Development of Forecast Scenarios," Energies. 2021;14: 1-28.
  12. IEA,"Fossil energy, Focusing on technologies to reduce costs and enhance sustainability of fossil fuels, including CCUS, EOR and fluidized bed conversion technology,". 2024.
  13. Marko, D. Petrovic, A.Vuckovic, "Comparative analysis of global trends in energy sustainability," Environmental Engineering & Management Journal (EEMJ). 2014;13: 947-960.
  14. IEA, "World Energy Investment 2022,".2022.
  15. World Bank, "How to scale up renewable energy investments,".2023.
  16. IPCC, (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). "Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. 2022.
  17. World Economic Forum, "How geopolitics will both hinder and accelerate the global energy transition,". 2024.
  18. vNyambuu and W. Semmler, "Trends in the extraction of non-renewable resources: The case of fossil energy," Economic Modelling, 2014;37:271–279.
  19. Gopal, "Ratepayers Have Had Enough Of Rising Energy Bills,".2024.
  20. K. Sovacool, "The geopolitics of energy transitions," Energy Research & Social Science. 2021;71:101837.
    1. Froggatt and M. Schneider, "Nuclear Power Versus Renewable EnergyVA Trend Analysis," Proceedings of the IEEE .2015; 103.
  21. S. Gallagher, A. Grübler, L. Kuhl, G. Nemet, C. Wilson, "The energy technology innovation system," Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 2012;37:137–162.
  22. Fouquet, "Path dependence in energy systems and economic development," Nature Energy. 20161.
  23. Nosheen, A. Akbar, M. Sohail, J. Iqbal, M. Hedvicakova, S. Ahmad, S. A. Haider, A. Gul, "From fossil to future: The transformative role of renewable energy in shaping economic landscapes," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy. 2024;14(4): 606–615.
  24. Pastukhova and K. Westphal, "Governing the global energy transformation," In The geopolitics of the global energy transition, Lecture Notes in Energy.2020: 341–364.
    1. Androniceanu, C. Veith, Ș. A. Ionescu, P. Marinescu, A. G. Sima, A. Paru, "Shaping sustainable futures: Public policies and renewable energy insights based on global bibliometric analysis," Sustainability. 2024;16(12).
  25. Esiri, J. K. Mensah, D. E. Ekechukwu, O. Ogundipe, A. H. Ikevuje, "Public perception and policy development in the transition to renewable energy," Magna Scientia Advanced Research and Reviews. 2024;8(2):228–237.
  26. Bergquist, D. M. Konisky, J. Kotcher, "Energy policy and public opinion: Patterns, trends and future directions," Progress in Energy. 2020;2(3).
  27. Fatima, Y. Li, M. Ahmad, G. Jabeen, X. Li, "Factors influencing renewable energy generation development: A way to environmental sustainability," Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 2021;28(37): 51714–51732.
    1. Omer, "Energy, environment and sustainable development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 2008;12(9):2265–2300.
  28. Gielen, F. Boshell, D. Saygin, M. D. Bazilian, N. Wagner, R. Gorini, "The role of renewable energy in the global energy transformation," Energy Strategy Reviews. 2019;24:38–50.
  29. World Nuclear Association, "Nuclear Power in France,". 2024.
  30. IEA, "France Climate Resilience Policy Indicator,". 2022.
  31. Obton, "France – between nuclear and renewables,".2024.
  32. CAN, "POSITION PAPER: The nuclear hurdle to a renewable future and fossil fuel phase-out,".2024.
  33. BillionBricks, "France’s Government Policies on Sustainable Energy: France’s Government Policies on Sustainable Energy - BillionBricks," Net-Zero Homes, 2024.
  34. Appunn, "Why is Germany phasing out nuclear power - and why now?: Q&A: Why is Germany phasing out nuclear power - and why now," Clean Energy Wire, 2023.
  35. M. Hoffman, A. High-Pippert, "From private lives to collective action: Recruitment and participation incentives for a community energy program," Energy Policy. 2010;38(12): 7567-7574.
  36. Lasolargroup, "Why is solar energy the most efficient source of renewable energy? ," https://la-solargroup.com/why-solar-energy-the-best-renewable-source/.2022.
  37. OECD iLibrary, "OECD Inventory of Support Measures for Fossil Fuels: Country Notes,".
  38. Clay, "The role of natural gas in France’s energy revolution,".2019.
  39. Bouacida, M. Gagnebin, A. Rudinger, "Breaking dependency on Russian gas: perspectives from France and Germany,". 2022.
  40. IEA, "Clean Energy Innovation. Global status of clean energy innovation in 2020,". 2020.
  41. IRENA, "Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2024,".2024.
  42. W. Fri, "The role of knowledge: Technological innovation in the energy system," The Energy Journal.2003;24(4):51–74.
  43. Sovacool, "The geopolitics of energy transitions," Energy Research & Social Science. 2021;71.
  44. Kurbatova and T. Perederii, "Global trends in renewable energy development," KhPI Week on Advanced Technology (KhPIWeek), 2020;42:260-263.
  45. Li, R. Luan, B. Lin, "The trend and factors affecting renewable energy distribution and disparity across countries," Energy.2022;254: 1-11.
  46. IPCC, "IPCC Sixth Assessment,".2023.
  47. Aldy and R. N. Stavins, "The Promise and Problems of Pricing Carbon: Theory and Experience," Journal of Environment & Development, 2012;21(2):152–180.
  48. Michaelowa and K. Michaelowa, "Climate policy integration and policy coherence: The case of the Paris Agreement," Climate Policy. 2017;17(7): 832-844.
  49. IEA (International Energy Agency), "World Energy Investment 2023,".2023.
  50. IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency), "Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2021,".2021.
  51. Pioro, R. Duffey and R. Pioro, "Overview of current status and future trends of nuclear power industry of the world," Fundamental Issues Critical to the Success of Nuclear Projects. 2022;45:23-78.
  52. Lazard, "Levelized Cost of Energy and Levelized Cost of Storage,".2022.
  53. NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory), "Renewable Energy Technologies,.2020.
  54. Pew Research Center, "Public Views on Climate and Energy,".2021.
  55. REN21, "Renewables Global Status Report,"2023.
  56. UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), "Paris Agreement,".2015.
  57. World Bank, "Financing Renewable Energy,".2022.
Journal of sustainable Energy Systems
Volume 4, Issue 4
October 2025
Pages 463-486

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics