Forecasting electricity demand in Tehran province for Consumer Sectors

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

2 Department of Physics and Energy Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

10.22059/ses.2025.391517.1125

Abstract

Electricity is one of the factors of production that plays a significant role in economic growth and development; Therefore, forecasting electricity demand and comparing the contribution of different economic sectors is of great importance, in order to meet future needs and policy-making. The objective of this study is to forecast electricity consumption in Tehran province for the time horizon of 2033; So, Tehran province's electricity consumption data is collected for consumer sectors (residential, commercial, agricultural, industrial and public) for a 20-year statistical period (2004-2023) and ARIMA model is used for their estimation and forecasting. In this study, all time series are stationary in first order of difference and according to the Box-Jenkins method, the best ARIMA model is selected for each of the time series. The results show that electricity consumption in Tehran province will increase from 42.1 TWh in 2023 to 71.2 TWh in 2033 and the share of the residential and commercial sectors is more than 50%. Also, it is predicted that the consumption of the commercial sector will be higher than the consumption of the public sector; Therefore, it is necessary to modify the consumption pattern in these sectors through the adoption of efficient policies.

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Main Subjects

Journal of sustainable Energy Systems

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 07 April 2025

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