A Forecast on Natural Gas Consumption in Iran until 2042 Utilizing the ARIMA Model

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Master student, School of Energy Engineering and Sustainable Resources, Collage of Interdisciplinary Sciences and technologies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

2 Professor, School of Energy Engineering and Sustainable Resources, Collage of Interdisciplinary Sciences and technologies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

10.22059/ses.2025.389042.1116

Abstract

The increasing global energy consumption due to fundamental changes in industry and economy has made energy management and demand forecasting essential. Natural gas is not only a major energy source but also one of the foundations of Iran's economy. Energy security and the sustainable supply of natural gas are complex and critical issues closely tied to the country's consumption growth and economic development. Therefore, comprehensive policies for optimal natural gas consumption management and sustainable development are necessary. These policies need to be flexible and effective to ensure a sustainable supply of natural gas. Managing natural gas demand is crucial for the optimal allocation of resources and the prevention of energy waste. To this end, innovative techniques for forecasting future consumption have been introduced, which aid decision-makers in more accurate planning. This research utilizes the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model as an advanced tool for forecasting energy demand. The ARIMA model plays a pivotal role in time series analysis and finds extensive applications in various fields such as economics, energy, and management. The data utilized in this research was sourced from the energy balance sheets of the Ministry of Energy. The findings reveal that natural gas consumption in Iran has significantly increased during the period from 1989 to 2022. Moreover, the forecasts, with a 95% confidence interval, indicate that natural gas consumption is expected to reach 690,313 million cubic meters by 2042. Additionally, the results show that, on average, natural gas consumption in Iran will experience more than a 43% growth.

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References

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Journal of sustainable Energy Systems
Volume 4, Issue 2
April 2025
Pages 197-211

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