Futures Studies of Biodiesel Energy in Iran with a Scenario Planning Approach

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Associate Professor, College of Farabi, University of Tehran, Iran

2 College of Farabi, University of Tehran, Iran

3 Assistant Professor, School of Management, University of Hormozgan, Iran

10.22059/ses.2025.389095.1117

Abstract

The aim of the present study is to design scenarios for biodiesel energy in Iran by applying the Cross-Impact Matrix approach. In this research, to develop probable scenarios, 25 factors influencing biodiesel energy were initially identified through a literature review and interviews with experts. Then, the direct and indirect impacts of these influencing variables on the future of biodiesel energy were calculated using a questionnaire and analyzed with MICMAC software. Among these factors, two key drivers—economic sanctions and government-controlled versus free markets—were identified as the most critical. Based on these drivers, plausible scenarios for the future of biodiesel energy in Iran were developed. The study selected these two uncertainties as critical factors for biodiesel energy in Iran. By combining the extreme states of these two uncertainties, four plausible scenarios emerged:1) Super Paradise 2) Abandoned Harbor 3) Silent Treasure Island, 4) Cold Desert. Understanding each of these scenarios and the specific recommendations provided for them will assist decision-makers and policymakers in making better decisions in this field. This enables them to act proactively and influence the outcomes rather than being passive and reactive when faced with future opportunities and threats.

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Main Subjects

Journal of sustainable Energy Systems

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 09 March 2025

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