Identification and Structural Analysis of Drivers Influencing the Future of Renewable Energy Technologies in Iran (Case Study: Solar Energy)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 M.Sc. in Industrial Management, Faculty of Human Sciences, Meybod University, Meybod, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Deptment of Industrial Management, Faculty of Human Sciences, Meybod University, Meybod, Iran

3 Associate Professor, Deptment of Industrial Management, Faculty of Human Sciences, Meybod University, Meybod, Iran

10.22059/ses.2025.388342.1112

Abstract

Global developments in the energy sector and concerns related to climate change have heightened the focus on renewable energy, particularly solar energy, in developing countries such as Iran. With its high solar irradiation potential, Iran is among the nations capable of extensively utilizing this clean and inexhaustible resource. The present study aims to identify and analyze the key drivers shaping the future of solar energy technology in Iran using a structural analysis approach. The research methodology is applied in purpose, pragmatist in its paradigmatic foundation, and descriptive-survey in terms of data collection. The statistical population comprises professors, managers, and experts in the renewable energy sector. Initially, through a review of the research literature and documentary studies, a set of preliminary drivers was identified. Subsequently, semi-structured interviews with 12 experts in renewable energy and solar technology, along with the completion of uncertainty questionnaires, were employed to screen and determine the main drivers. Finally, the results of the structural analysis, conducted using MICMAC software, identified five key drivers that play a pivotal role in advancing solar energy technology in Iran: specialized human resources, government policies and support, international cooperation in solar energy technology, emerging and advanced global technologies, and transmission and distribution infrastructure. This study offers a comprehensive analytical framework grounded in foresight methodology, providing policymakers and decision-makers with the tools to identify emerging trends and uncertainties. By leveraging these insights, more effective strategies can be developed for advancing solar energy in Iran.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

  • Akhlaghi MM, Shafiei Alavijeh A, Hosseinalizadeh R, Nasri S, Ghazinoory S. Systematic failures in the development of photovoltaic systems: The case study of Iran's solar energy. Energy Strategy Reviews. 2025; 57:101637.
  • Herbst JM, Grant-Smith D. Tapping into new power opportunities and challenges for growing community renewable energy. 1st ed. London: Imprint Routledge; 2020.
  • Ebadi H, Mohammadi Dechashmeh M, Safaipour M, Sajjadian N. Compilation of renewable energy development scenario in Ahvaz metropolis. Future Cities Vision Quarterly. 2023;4(16):59-79. [Persian].
  • Ren B. Advancing the Global Renewable Energy Transition. Paris: France. Sadorsky P. Some future scenarios for renewable energy. 2017; 43(1):1091-1104.
  • Mansouri S, Maleki A. Analysis of Iran's primary energy portfolio, its future and recommendations for optimization. Strategic Management and Future Research Quarterly. 2023;2(6):103-115. [Persian].
  • Salehi Shabestari A, Khakzad Shahandeshti A, Pirmohammadi M. Investigating opportunities, future technologies and the necessity of developing solar energy in Iran. 31st Annual International Conference of Iranian Mechanical Engineering and 9th Conference of Iranian Power Plant Industry. 2023. [Persian].
  • Fartash K, Khayatian-Yazdi MS, Ghorbani A. Photovoltaic Technological Niche Development in Iran with Strategic Niche Management Perspective. Science and Technology Policy Quarterly. 2020;13(1):37-54.
  • Keshavarzturk A, Barat N. Future studies in urban planning and management. Information Technology Management and Document Center. 2012;(22). [Persian].
  • Khayatiyan-Yazdi MS, Fartash K, Ghorbani A. Renewable energy development scenarios in the horizon of 1420 with a futures research approach. Management Futures Research Quarterly. 2021;31(127). [Persian].
  • Hongqiao P, Yuanyuan L, Hui S, Zhengmin Z, Yuliang L. Extreme scenario generation for renewable energies. IET Smart Grid. 2024; 7(2):130-141.
  • Farahat A, Labban A, Mashat A, Hasanean H, Kambezidis H. Status of solar-energy adoption in GCC, Yemen, Iraq, and Jordan: Challenges and carbon-footprint analysis. Clean Technologies. 2024.
  • Marfuga I, Maria F, William M, Agata D. Who finances renewable energy in Europe? Examining temporality, authority and contestation in solar and wind subsidies in Poland, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Energy Strategy Reviews. 2021; 38(8):1-16.
  • Shirijian M, Seraj H. Future research on new energies in the world in order to analyze and provide appropriate strategies to enhance Iran's energy security. Quarterly Journal of Defense Economics. 2020;5(16):150-115. [Persian].
  • Razeghi M, Naseri A. Simulation and analysis of different scenarios for the use of renewable resources in the energy system of Fars province, emphasizing the role of cooling. Journal of Sustainable Energy Systems. 2023;2(2):143-165.
  • Odhiambo MO, Abbas A, Wang X, Mutinda G. Solar energy potential in the Yangtze River Delta region: A GIS-based assessment. Energies. 2020;14(1):143.
  • World Energy Scenarios: Exploring Innovation Pathways to 2040. London: UK; 2019.31:1-6.
  • Gielen D, Boshell F, Saygin D, Bazilian MD, Wagner N, Gorini R. The role of renewable energy in the global energy transformation. Energy Strategy Reviews. 2019; 24:38-50.
  • Honga J, Kima J, Sona W, Shina H, Kima N, Leeb W, et al. Long-term energy strategy scenarios for South Korea: Transition to a sustainable energy system. Energy Policy. 2019; 127:425-437.
  • Rostami S, Anousheh M, Darvishi-Sehtalabi F, Keshavarz-Torq A, Mohammad-Hosseini B. Developing a paradigmatic model of entrepreneurship development in the field of renewable energies: Applying a futures research approach. Journal of Entrepreneurship Studies and Sustainable Agricultural Development. 2023;10(3):116-95. [Persian].
  • Qiyasi Fard, N., Mohebbi, H., Nabi Meybodi, M. Analysis of barriers to entrepreneurship development in deprived areas using Delphi and ANP methods. Journal of Entrepreneurship Development, 2023; 16(1): 61-76. [Persian].
  • O’Sullivan M, Overland I, Sandalow D. The geopolitics of renewable energy. Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy and Harvard Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Working Paper. 2017;17(27):1-55.
  • Ghafarpour R. Optimal design of renewable energy systems for border bases considering inter-base fuel supply system. Scientific Journal of Modern Science and Technologies of Modern Defense. 2020;11(2):135-143. [Persian].
  • Research Center of the Islamic Consultative Assembly. Emphasis on the transfer and popularization of modern defense technologies as a driver for other industries in the country. Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA). 2022. [Persian].
  • Cheung T, Oßenbrugge J. Governing urban energy transitions and climate change: Actions relations and local dependencies in Germany. Energy Research & Social Science. 2020; 69:101728.
  • Ghaemi Rad M, Shahin A. Development of solar energy technologies in Iran: SWOT and DEMATEL methods. Quarterly Journal of Energy Policy and Planning Research. 2017; 2(4):97-130.
  • Mehdizadeh-Bahmanabad A, Payandeh R, Shaishasal M. Identifying the drivers of technological cooperation between large companies and knowledge-based companies; The case study of Iran's National Copper Industry Company. Improvement Management. 2024;18(1):1-26. [Persian].
  • Toscan A, Siqueira J, Tokura L, Nogueira C, Vidotto M. Photovoltaic solar energy in Brazil: A review. OBSERVATÓRIO DE LA ECONOMÍA LATINOAMERICANA. 2024.
  • Cotten A, Forehand DI. Multi-objective optimisation of a sloped-motion, multibody wave energy converter concept. Renewable Energy. 2022; 194:307-320.
  • Shokri M, Esmaili-Ardakani A. Political economy of renewable energies and Iran's future scenarios in the perspective of energy transition in 2050. Iranian Energy Economics Research Journal. 2022;12(45):11-39. [Persian].
  • Abbasiguderzi A, Maleki A. Policymaking of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the optimal use of renewable energy sources. Strategic Studies of Public Policy. 2017; 7(23):159-174. [Persian].
  • Mohammadi-de-Cheshmeh M, Safai-pour M, Sajjadian N, Ebadi H. Feasibility study of the development of urban renewable energies in Ahvaz with a passive defense approach. Scientific Journal of Geography and Environmental Planning. 2023;35(1):19-44. [Persian].
  • Mohebbi, H., Amiri, Y. Structural Leveling of strategic objectives in Iran Alloy Steel Company. Journal of Strategic Management Studies, 2021; 12(45): 205-224. [Persian].
  • Kazemian G, Rasouli A, Khazaei M.M. The position of new renewable energies in making cities sustainable (case study: Tehran). Research and Urban Planning. 2017;8(29):99-118. [Persian].
Journal of sustainable Energy Systems
Volume 4, Issue 4
October 2025
Pages 359-381

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics